Sales activity edges upwards from depressed levels.
- House prices decline at similar pace to September
- New buyer enquiries and agreed sales edge upwards
- Sales expectations remain in positive territory
The October RICS Housing Market Survey continues to show the net price balance in negative territory with 24% more surveyors reporting falling rather than rising prices over the last three months. This is not dissimilar from the September reading of -23%. However, it is significant that more than half of all respondents actually indicated that prices were broadly stable over the period and of those reporting a decline, almost three quarters suggested that the extent of the fall was somewhere between 0 and 2%.
Meanwhile activity indicators were generally a little firmer over the month. The new buyer enquiries net balance edged up to +7 from +4 while the three month run of negative readings for the new instructions series was halted albeit in the most modest of ways; the net balance for fresh supply coming to the market in October was +3.
The better tone was also reflected in newly agreed sales which having dipped in September rebounded over the past month. The positive net balance of +8 was actually the best reading since April 2010. This improvement was also reflected in the average number of sales per surveyor (branch). In the three months to October, the headline number of sales climbed to 15 which, while still very low from a historical perspective, is actually the highest number since April. Compared to September, this represents a 2.2% rise.
Meanwhile, the average amount of stock on surveyors books increased by 2.7% to 70.9. As a result of this, there was little change in the sales to stock ratio (a closely watched guide to market slack).
London continues to be the only region recording rising prices at the present time; it is also the only area where the price expectations net balance is positive. By way of contrast, new buyer enquiries and sales expectations appear to be edging upwards across rather more of the country. The former readings were actually strongest in the South East and the North West in October. Outside of England & Wales, Northern Ireland’s price balance although still negative, showed a marked improvement (net balance increased from -37 to -29). On the other hand, Scotland’s price balance lost all its previous month’s gains, with the net balance falling from -3 to -34.
source: RICS (www.rics.org)
